Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →43.2%
Vitória Guimarães
28.3%
Draw
28.5%
Moreirense
Expected Goals (xG)
1.43
Vitória Guimarães
vs
1.11
Moreirense
Markets
BTTS52.0%
Over 0.591.1%
Over 1.573.0%
Over 2.546.6%
Over 3.525.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.5%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
8.9%
0-0
8.9%
2-0
8.0%
0-1
7.8%
1-2
7.0%
2-2
5.0%
0-2
4.9%
3-1
4.2%
3-0
3.8%
1-3
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).