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28 Dec 2024 · 15:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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28.6%
AVS
29.4%
Draw
42.0%
Estrela

Expected Goals (xG)

1.06

AVS

vs
1.34

Estrela

Markets

BTTS49.1%
Over 0.589.9%
Over 1.570.0%
Over 2.542.8%
Over 3.522.0%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
13.9%
0-1
11.2%
0-0
10.1%
1-0
8.7%
1-2
8.6%
0-2
8.1%
2-1
6.8%
2-0
5.1%
2-2
4.6%
1-3
3.8%
0-3
3.6%
3-1
2.4%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).