Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →45.9%
Port Vale
24.4%
Draw
29.7%
Swindon
Expected Goals (xG)
1.52
Port Vale
vs
1.16
Swindon
Markets
BTTS53.2%
Over 0.593.7%
Over 1.574.3%
Over 2.550.2%
Over 3.528.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.6%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
9.2%
0-1
8.5%
2-0
7.9%
1-2
7.0%
0-0
6.3%
2-2
5.3%
0-2
4.6%
3-1
4.6%
3-0
4.0%
1-3
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).