Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →65.2%
Millwall
21.2%
Draw
13.6%
Plymouth
Expected Goals (xG)
2.11
Millwall
vs
0.87
Plymouth
Markets
BTTS51.7%
Over 0.594.1%
Over 1.580.5%
Over 2.557.1%
Over 3.534.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
11.3%
1-1
10.1%
1-0
10.0%
2-1
9.8%
3-0
8.0%
3-1
6.9%
0-0
5.9%
2-2
4.3%
4-0
4.2%
1-2
4.0%
4-1
3.6%
0-1
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).