Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →80.7%
Manchester City
12.4%
Draw
7.0%
Luton
Expected Goals (xG)
3.32
Manchester City
vs
1.00
Luton
Markets
BTTS61.6%
Over 0.598.1%
Over 1.593.5%
Over 2.580.5%
Over 3.562.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-1
8.1%
3-0
8.1%
2-1
7.3%
2-0
7.3%
4-1
6.7%
4-0
6.7%
1-1
5.0%
5-1
4.5%
5-0
4.5%
3-2
4.1%
1-0
3.8%
2-2
3.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).