Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →68.0%
Portsmouth
18.5%
Draw
13.5%
Burton
Expected Goals (xG)
2.01
Portsmouth
vs
0.73
Burton
Markets
BTTS44.1%
Over 0.594.3%
Over 1.575.0%
Over 2.551.6%
Over 3.529.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.8%
2-0
13.0%
2-1
9.5%
1-1
8.7%
3-0
8.7%
3-1
6.4%
0-0
5.7%
0-1
5.5%
4-0
4.4%
2-2
3.5%
1-2
3.5%
4-1
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).