Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →41.9%
Ascoli
32.8%
Draw
25.3%
Spal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.16
Ascoli
vs
0.84
Spal
Markets
BTTS40.5%
Over 0.585.3%
Over 1.560.9%
Over 2.532.6%
Over 3.514.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-0
14.7%
1-1
14.5%
1-0
14.3%
0-1
10.0%
2-0
9.1%
2-1
7.7%
1-2
5.6%
0-2
4.8%
3-0
3.5%
2-2
3.2%
3-1
3.0%
1-3
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).