Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →76.1%
Benfica
17.3%
Draw
6.6%
Santa Clara
Expected Goals (xG)
1.99
Benfica
vs
0.40
Santa Clara
Markets
BTTS27.9%
Over 0.591.2%
Over 1.568.6%
Over 2.542.8%
Over 3.521.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
18.6%
2-0
18.2%
3-0
12.1%
0-0
8.8%
2-1
7.2%
1-1
6.9%
4-0
6.0%
3-1
4.8%
0-1
3.9%
5-0
2.4%
4-1
2.4%
1-2
1.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).