Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →11.7%
Luton
16.5%
Draw
71.8%
Manchester City
Expected Goals (xG)
1.16
Luton
vs
2.87
Manchester City
Markets
BTTS65.5%
Over 0.597.4%
Over 1.591.9%
Over 2.576.6%
Over 3.557.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-2
8.5%
1-3
8.1%
0-2
7.3%
0-3
7.0%
1-1
6.7%
1-4
5.8%
0-4
5.0%
2-2
4.9%
2-3
4.7%
0-1
4.3%
2-1
3.4%
2-4
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).