Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →66.5%
Arsenal
22.0%
Draw
11.5%
Fulham
Expected Goals (xG)
2.09
Arsenal
vs
0.78
Fulham
Markets
BTTS48.8%
Over 0.593.1%
Over 1.579.4%
Over 2.554.8%
Over 3.532.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
12.4%
1-0
10.5%
1-1
10.5%
2-1
9.7%
3-0
8.6%
0-0
6.9%
3-1
6.7%
4-0
4.5%
2-2
3.8%
1-2
3.6%
4-1
3.5%
0-1
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).