Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →39.3%
Pacos Ferreira
30.9%
Draw
29.8%
Tondela
Expected Goals (xG)
1.02
Pacos Ferreira
vs
0.84
Tondela
Markets
BTTS35.8%
Over 0.585.0%
Over 1.554.9%
Over 2.528.6%
Over 3.511.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.4%
0-0
15.0%
0-1
13.7%
1-1
12.8%
2-0
8.1%
2-1
6.8%
1-2
5.6%
0-2
5.5%
2-2
2.9%
3-0
2.7%
3-1
2.3%
1-3
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).