Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →79.9%
Milan
13.5%
Draw
6.6%
Benevento
Expected Goals (xG)
2.56
Milan
vs
0.59
Benevento
Markets
BTTS41.2%
Over 0.595.8%
Over 1.582.2%
Over 2.561.0%
Over 3.538.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
14.0%
3-0
11.9%
1-0
11.0%
2-1
8.3%
4-0
7.6%
3-1
7.1%
1-1
6.4%
4-1
4.5%
0-0
4.2%
5-0
3.9%
0-1
2.6%
2-2
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).