Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →83.7%
Sp Lisbon
11.4%
Draw
4.9%
Nacional
Expected Goals (xG)
2.67
Sp Lisbon
vs
0.49
Nacional
Markets
BTTS35.6%
Over 0.596.0%
Over 1.582.0%
Over 2.561.0%
Over 3.538.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
15.2%
3-0
13.5%
1-0
11.6%
4-0
9.0%
2-1
7.4%
3-1
6.6%
1-1
5.3%
5-0
4.8%
4-1
4.4%
0-0
4.0%
5-1
2.3%
0-1
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).