Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →39.9%
Brentford
26.6%
Draw
33.5%
Newcastle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.64
Brentford
vs
1.49
Newcastle
Markets
BTTS64.0%
Over 0.594.2%
Over 1.583.5%
Over 2.560.6%
Over 3.538.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.2%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
8.0%
2-2
6.5%
2-0
5.9%
0-0
5.8%
1-0
5.7%
0-1
5.0%
0-2
4.9%
3-1
4.8%
1-3
4.0%
3-2
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).