Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →37.0%
Casa Pia
28.9%
Draw
34.1%
Moreirense
Expected Goals (xG)
1.29
Casa Pia
vs
1.23
Moreirense
Markets
BTTS52.1%
Over 0.590.9%
Over 1.572.5%
Over 2.546.0%
Over 3.524.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.8%
1-0
9.4%
0-0
9.1%
0-1
8.9%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
7.8%
2-0
6.7%
0-2
6.1%
2-2
5.0%
3-1
3.5%
1-3
3.2%
3-0
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).