Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →86.0%
Real Madrid
9.4%
Draw
4.6%
Almeria
Expected Goals (xG)
3.37
Real Madrid
vs
0.74
Almeria
Markets
BTTS50.7%
Over 0.598.2%
Over 1.591.7%
Over 2.577.7%
Over 3.558.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0
10.5%
2-0
9.3%
4-0
8.8%
3-1
7.8%
2-1
6.9%
4-1
6.5%
5-0
5.9%
1-0
5.4%
5-1
4.4%
1-1
4.2%
3-2
2.9%
2-2
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).