Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →60.7%
Lincoln
20.6%
Draw
18.7%
Luton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.85
Lincoln
vs
0.90
Luton
Markets
BTTS49.2%
Over 0.594.5%
Over 1.575.2%
Over 2.552.0%
Over 3.529.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.7%
2-0
10.9%
2-1
9.9%
1-1
9.7%
3-0
6.8%
0-1
6.6%
3-1
6.1%
0-0
5.5%
1-2
4.8%
2-2
4.4%
4-0
3.1%
4-1
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).