Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →22.8%
Padova
30.2%
Draw
47.0%
Lecce
Expected Goals (xG)
0.88
Padova
vs
1.37
Lecce
Markets
BTTS44.8%
Over 0.588.2%
Over 1.566.9%
Over 2.539.0%
Over 3.519.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.0%
0-1
13.2%
0-0
11.8%
0-2
9.9%
1-2
8.7%
1-0
8.0%
2-1
5.6%
0-3
4.5%
2-0
4.1%
1-3
4.0%
2-2
3.8%
2-3
1.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).