Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →39.6%
Tondela
33.0%
Draw
27.4%
Belenenses
Expected Goals (xG)
0.94
Tondela
vs
0.73
Belenenses
Markets
BTTS31.0%
Over 0.581.7%
Over 1.549.2%
Over 2.523.5%
Over 3.58.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
18.3%
0-0
18.3%
0-1
14.2%
1-1
12.3%
2-0
8.4%
2-1
6.1%
0-2
5.0%
1-2
4.7%
3-0
2.6%
2-2
2.2%
3-1
1.9%
0-3
1.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).