Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →6.4%
Tondela
19.7%
Draw
74.0%
Porto
Expected Goals (xG)
0.32
Tondela
vs
1.78
Porto
Markets
BTTS22.8%
Over 0.588.2%
Over 1.561.9%
Over 2.535.3%
Over 3.516.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
22.0%
0-2
19.3%
0-0
11.8%
0-3
11.5%
1-1
6.7%
1-2
6.3%
0-4
5.1%
1-0
4.3%
1-3
3.7%
0-5
1.8%
1-4
1.7%
2-1
1.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).