Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →49.4%
Stevenage
28.2%
Draw
22.3%
Northampton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.21
Stevenage
vs
0.69
Northampton
Markets
BTTS34.0%
Over 0.586.1%
Over 1.555.6%
Over 2.529.7%
Over 3.512.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
19.1%
0-0
13.9%
1-1
11.5%
0-1
11.4%
2-0
10.9%
2-1
7.6%
3-0
4.4%
1-2
4.3%
0-2
3.6%
3-1
3.0%
2-2
2.6%
4-0
1.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).