Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →45.3%
Aston Villa
28.4%
Draw
26.3%
Fulham
Expected Goals (xG)
1.56
Aston Villa
vs
1.15
Fulham
Markets
BTTS55.5%
Over 0.591.7%
Over 1.576.9%
Over 2.550.8%
Over 3.528.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.6%
2-1
9.3%
1-0
8.8%
0-0
8.3%
2-0
8.1%
1-2
6.8%
0-1
6.0%
2-2
5.3%
3-1
4.9%
0-2
4.4%
3-0
4.2%
3-2
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).