Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →84.0%
Porto
12.0%
Draw
4.0%
Arouca
Expected Goals (xG)
2.78
Porto
vs
0.50
Arouca
Markets
BTTS37.6%
Over 0.595.8%
Over 1.584.3%
Over 2.563.7%
Over 3.541.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
14.5%
3-0
13.4%
1-0
10.0%
4-0
9.3%
2-1
7.3%
3-1
6.8%
1-1
5.7%
5-0
5.2%
4-1
4.7%
0-0
4.2%
5-1
2.6%
2-2
1.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).