Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →46.4%
Modena
33.4%
Draw
20.1%
Ascoli
Expected Goals (xG)
1.17
Modena
vs
0.68
Ascoli
Markets
BTTS35.2%
Over 0.583.0%
Over 1.556.3%
Over 2.528.2%
Over 3.511.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.2%
0-0
17.0%
1-1
13.7%
2-0
10.8%
0-1
9.5%
2-1
7.3%
1-2
4.2%
3-0
4.2%
0-2
3.6%
3-1
2.8%
2-2
2.5%
4-0
1.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).