Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →32.7%
Tondela
33.7%
Draw
33.6%
Nacional
Expected Goals (xG)
0.93
Tondela
vs
0.95
Nacional
Markets
BTTS37.8%
Over 0.583.8%
Over 1.556.7%
Over 2.529.0%
Over 3.512.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-0
16.2%
1-1
14.3%
0-1
13.7%
1-0
13.4%
0-2
6.9%
2-0
6.6%
1-2
6.4%
2-1
6.3%
2-2
3.0%
0-3
2.2%
3-0
2.0%
1-3
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).