Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →51.2%
Ath Madrid
25.2%
Draw
23.6%
Villarreal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.66
Ath Madrid
vs
1.05
Villarreal
Markets
BTTS53.0%
Over 0.592.9%
Over 1.575.7%
Over 2.550.9%
Over 3.528.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.0%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
9.2%
0-0
7.1%
0-1
6.6%
1-2
6.1%
3-1
5.3%
3-0
5.1%
2-2
5.1%
0-2
3.7%
3-2
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).