Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →42.2%
Newcastle
28.3%
Draw
29.6%
Brighton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.54
Newcastle
vs
1.26
Brighton
Markets
BTTS58.0%
Over 0.592.3%
Over 1.578.6%
Over 2.553.1%
Over 3.530.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.4%
2-1
9.1%
1-0
7.7%
0-0
7.7%
1-2
7.4%
2-0
7.2%
0-1
6.0%
2-2
5.7%
0-2
4.8%
3-1
4.7%
3-0
3.7%
1-3
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).