Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →53.6%
Derby
23.7%
Draw
22.7%
Leicester
Expected Goals (xG)
1.92
Derby
vs
1.19
Leicester
Markets
BTTS60.1%
Over 0.594.8%
Over 1.582.3%
Over 2.560.0%
Over 3.537.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.0%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.2%
1-0
7.8%
3-1
6.2%
1-2
6.1%
2-2
5.8%
3-0
5.3%
0-0
5.2%
0-1
4.6%
3-2
3.7%
0-2
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).