Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →49.0%
Manchester City
29.6%
Draw
21.4%
Everton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.49
Manchester City
vs
0.91
Everton
Markets
BTTS48.1%
Over 0.589.3%
Over 1.571.0%
Over 2.543.1%
Over 3.522.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.0%
1-0
11.8%
0-0
10.7%
2-0
10.0%
2-1
9.2%
0-1
6.5%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
5.0%
3-1
4.6%
2-2
4.2%
0-2
3.8%
3-2
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).