Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →82.7%
Derby
11.7%
Draw
5.7%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
2.59
Derby
vs
0.51
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS36.2%
Over 0.596.0%
Over 1.581.0%
Over 2.559.8%
Over 3.537.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
15.2%
3-0
13.1%
1-0
12.2%
4-0
8.5%
2-1
7.7%
3-1
6.6%
1-1
5.4%
5-0
4.4%
4-1
4.3%
0-0
4.0%
0-1
2.8%
5-1
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).