Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →49.9%
Castellon
20.4%
Draw
29.7%
Almeria
Expected Goals (xG)
2.19
Castellon
vs
1.67
Almeria
Markets
BTTS71.9%
Over 0.598.0%
Over 1.589.6%
Over 2.573.9%
Over 3.553.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
8.5%
1-1
7.7%
2-2
7.0%
1-2
6.4%
3-1
6.2%
3-2
5.1%
2-0
5.1%
1-0
4.7%
2-3
3.9%
3-0
3.7%
0-1
3.6%
1-3
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).