Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →64.2%
Arsenal
22.2%
Draw
13.6%
Brentford
Expected Goals (xG)
2.12
Arsenal
vs
0.90
Brentford
Markets
BTTS53.6%
Over 0.593.9%
Over 1.581.7%
Over 2.558.2%
Over 3.535.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
11.0%
1-1
10.6%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
9.0%
3-0
7.8%
3-1
7.0%
0-0
6.1%
2-2
4.4%
1-2
4.2%
4-0
4.1%
4-1
3.7%
3-2
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).