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AHT: 12CSV

03 Sept 2023 · 15:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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75.9%
Estoril
13.8%
Draw
10.3%
Boavista

Expected Goals (xG)

2.76

Estoril

vs
0.93

Boavista

Markets

BTTS56.4%
Over 0.597.8%
Over 1.588.0%
Over 2.571.3%
Over 3.550.4%

Most Likely Scorelines

2-0
9.5%
2-1
8.8%
3-0
8.8%
3-1
8.1%
1-0
7.2%
1-1
6.1%
4-0
6.1%
4-1
5.6%
2-2
4.1%
3-2
3.8%
5-0
3.3%
5-1
3.1%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).