Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →55.0%
Middlesbrough
25.9%
Draw
19.0%
Bristol City
Expected Goals (xG)
1.69
Middlesbrough
vs
0.90
Bristol City
Markets
BTTS49.5%
Over 0.591.6%
Over 1.574.2%
Over 2.548.1%
Over 3.526.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.4%
1-0
11.7%
2-0
10.7%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.4%
3-0
6.0%
0-1
5.8%
3-1
5.4%
1-2
5.2%
2-2
4.4%
0-2
3.0%
4-0
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).