Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →74.4%
Real Madrid
17.5%
Draw
8.1%
Vallecano
Expected Goals (xG)
2.21
Real Madrid
vs
0.59
Vallecano
Markets
BTTS39.9%
Over 0.593.7%
Over 1.577.2%
Over 2.553.1%
Over 3.530.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
14.9%
1-0
13.2%
3-0
11.0%
2-1
8.8%
1-1
8.2%
3-1
6.5%
0-0
6.3%
4-0
6.1%
4-1
3.6%
0-1
3.3%
5-0
2.7%
2-2
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).