Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →39.9%
Estrela
28.2%
Draw
31.9%
Farense
Expected Goals (xG)
1.16
Estrela
vs
1.00
Farense
Markets
BTTS42.7%
Over 0.589.0%
Over 1.562.8%
Over 2.536.5%
Over 3.517.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.0%
1-1
12.8%
0-1
12.2%
0-0
11.0%
2-0
7.8%
2-1
7.7%
1-2
6.7%
0-2
5.8%
2-2
3.9%
3-0
3.0%
3-1
3.0%
1-3
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).