Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →47.0%
Portimonense
26.2%
Draw
26.8%
Tondela
Expected Goals (xG)
1.38
Portimonense
vs
0.96
Tondela
Markets
BTTS45.5%
Over 0.590.9%
Over 1.567.1%
Over 2.541.3%
Over 3.520.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.9%
1-1
12.2%
0-1
9.8%
2-0
9.2%
0-0
9.1%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
6.1%
0-2
4.5%
2-2
4.2%
3-0
4.2%
3-1
4.0%
1-3
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).