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09 Feb 2025 · 12:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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42.5%
FC Koln
33.0%
Draw
24.5%
Schalke 04

Expected Goals (xG)

1.16

FC Koln

vs
0.82

Schalke 04

Markets

BTTS39.5%
Over 0.584.9%
Over 1.560.0%
Over 2.531.7%
Over 3.513.8%

Most Likely Scorelines

0-0
15.1%
1-0
14.8%
1-1
14.4%
0-1
10.0%
2-0
9.3%
2-1
7.6%
1-2
5.3%
0-2
4.6%
3-0
3.6%
2-2
3.1%
3-1
2.9%
1-3
1.5%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).