Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.5%
Mainz
27.8%
Draw
27.7%
Freiburg
Expected Goals (xG)
1.48
Mainz
vs
1.12
Freiburg
Markets
BTTS52.9%
Over 0.591.6%
Over 1.574.1%
Over 2.548.0%
Over 3.526.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.3%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
9.1%
0-0
8.4%
2-0
8.1%
0-1
7.4%
1-2
6.9%
2-2
5.1%
0-2
4.7%
3-1
4.5%
3-0
4.0%
1-3
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).