Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →71.0%
Sp Braga
17.8%
Draw
11.2%
Setubal
Expected Goals (xG)
2.12
Sp Braga
vs
0.69
Setubal
Markets
BTTS43.3%
Over 0.594.3%
Over 1.576.6%
Over 2.553.2%
Over 3.531.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
13.6%
1-0
13.2%
3-0
9.6%
2-1
9.3%
1-1
8.4%
3-1
6.6%
0-0
5.7%
4-0
5.1%
0-1
4.5%
4-1
3.5%
2-2
3.2%
1-2
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).