Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.6%
Exeter
27.3%
Draw
32.1%
Luton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.15
Exeter
vs
0.98
Luton
Markets
BTTS41.6%
Over 0.589.2%
Over 1.561.7%
Over 2.535.8%
Over 3.516.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.8%
0-1
12.8%
1-1
12.3%
0-0
10.8%
2-0
7.8%
2-1
7.7%
1-2
6.6%
0-2
5.7%
2-2
3.8%
3-0
3.0%
3-1
2.9%
1-3
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).