Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →57.0%
Famalicao
27.3%
Draw
15.7%
Casa Pia
Expected Goals (xG)
1.54
Famalicao
vs
0.69
Casa Pia
Markets
BTTS40.1%
Over 0.588.4%
Over 1.566.3%
Over 2.538.7%
Over 3.518.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.6%
2-0
12.7%
1-1
12.3%
0-0
11.6%
2-1
8.8%
3-0
6.6%
0-1
6.5%
3-1
4.5%
1-2
3.9%
2-2
3.0%
0-2
2.6%
4-0
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).