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08 May 2016

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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29.9%
Las Palmas
29.1%
Draw
41.0%
Ath Bilbao

Expected Goals (xG)

1.01

Las Palmas

vs
1.24

Ath Bilbao

Markets

BTTS45.4%
Over 0.589.1%
Over 1.566.0%
Over 2.539.0%
Over 3.519.0%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
13.5%
0-1
12.8%
0-0
10.9%
1-0
10.4%
1-2
8.2%
0-2
8.1%
2-1
6.7%
2-0
5.4%
2-2
4.1%
1-3
3.4%
0-3
3.3%
3-1
2.3%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).