Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →39.3%
Union Berlin
28.0%
Draw
32.7%
Freiburg
Expected Goals (xG)
1.39
Union Berlin
vs
1.24
Freiburg
Markets
BTTS54.3%
Over 0.591.8%
Over 1.574.7%
Over 2.548.9%
Over 3.527.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.4%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
8.6%
0-0
8.2%
0-1
8.0%
1-2
7.7%
2-0
6.9%
0-2
5.6%
2-2
5.4%
3-1
4.0%
3-0
3.2%
1-3
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).