Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →38.5%
Derby
31.4%
Draw
30.1%
Sunderland
Expected Goals (xG)
1.17
Derby
vs
1.01
Sunderland
Markets
BTTS45.0%
Over 0.587.6%
Over 1.565.3%
Over 2.537.3%
Over 3.517.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.5%
0-0
12.4%
1-0
12.1%
0-1
10.2%
2-1
7.8%
2-0
7.8%
1-2
6.7%
0-2
5.7%
2-2
4.0%
3-1
3.1%
3-0
3.0%
1-3
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).