Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →13.4%
Nacional
20.7%
Draw
65.9%
Benfica
Expected Goals (xG)
0.68
Nacional
vs
1.86
Benfica
Markets
BTTS41.3%
Over 0.592.6%
Over 1.571.7%
Over 2.546.7%
Over 3.525.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
15.1%
0-2
13.6%
1-1
9.6%
1-2
9.3%
0-3
8.4%
0-0
7.4%
1-0
5.8%
1-3
5.8%
0-4
3.9%
2-1
3.4%
2-2
3.2%
1-4
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).