Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →53.1%
Malaga
24.8%
Draw
22.0%
Numancia
Expected Goals (xG)
1.60
Malaga
vs
0.93
Numancia
Markets
BTTS48.1%
Over 0.592.1%
Over 1.571.6%
Over 2.546.2%
Over 3.524.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.9%
1-1
11.8%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
7.9%
0-1
7.6%
1-2
5.5%
3-0
5.4%
3-1
5.0%
2-2
4.4%
0-2
3.5%
3-2
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).