Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →81.6%
Porto
14.8%
Draw
3.6%
Alverca
Expected Goals (xG)
2.29
Porto
vs
0.34
Alverca
Markets
BTTS26.0%
Over 0.592.4%
Over 1.574.3%
Over 2.548.9%
Over 3.527.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
19.0%
1-0
16.1%
3-0
14.5%
4-0
8.3%
0-0
7.6%
2-1
6.4%
1-1
6.0%
3-1
4.9%
5-0
3.8%
4-1
2.8%
0-1
2.0%
5-1
1.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).