Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →54.0%
Modena
29.2%
Draw
16.8%
Padova
Expected Goals (xG)
1.45
Modena
vs
0.70
Padova
Markets
BTTS39.7%
Over 0.587.2%
Over 1.564.5%
Over 2.536.4%
Over 3.517.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.7%
1-1
13.0%
0-0
12.8%
2-0
12.3%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
7.0%
3-0
5.9%
3-1
4.1%
1-2
4.1%
2-2
3.0%
0-2
2.8%
4-0
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).