Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →75.4%
Real Madrid
15.2%
Draw
9.4%
Sociedad
Expected Goals (xG)
2.61
Real Madrid
vs
0.83
Sociedad
Markets
BTTS52.4%
Over 0.596.7%
Over 1.585.9%
Over 2.566.9%
Over 3.545.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
10.9%
3-0
9.5%
2-1
9.1%
1-0
8.2%
3-1
7.9%
1-1
7.1%
4-0
6.2%
4-1
5.2%
2-2
3.8%
0-0
3.3%
3-2
3.3%
5-0
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).